Hue knew? A colorist’s guide to color and trend forecasting for brands

Color trend forecasting is sometimes seen as a mystical process, but it’s very straightforward. I’ve worked on color and trend forecasts for brands for decades, and in this article, I’ll explain why color is so important to customers and how you can create color and trend forecasts for your own brand.

It is an oft-quoted statistic that around 90% of product purchases are based on color. I can believe this. Would you buy a bag in a color you disliked? Probably not. Would you buy a bag in a color you adored if it wasn’t quite the right shape or size? You might.

This is because we are visual animals. When our brain is high on dopamine when it falls in love with a color, it is already telling us it wants that bag, even though our heart is whispering we don’t really need it.

We shop with our eyes. When we walk into a store, we can’t feel the quality of the items on offer, but we can see the color, and we’re drawn toward the colors that most appeal to us. By the time we’re almost at touching distance, we have already formed a connection with a product we don’t know much about, which is through color.

If your brand exists online, the same rules apply. When your customer lands on your website or comes across your social media profile, they’ll make instant judgments based at least in part on your use of color. Although some of the meanings and associations of colors are based on color psychology, some will be influenced by the latest color trends.

You can choose how deeply you want to explore forecasting, but you shouldn’t think it’s something only fashion brands do.

In my opinion, the two go hand in hand if you want to produce a convincing color forecast for your brand.

Forecasters like me, hired to deliver a color and trend presentation, often work on a PESTEL model. We look at the effects of politics, economics, social attitudes, technological developments, environmental concerns, and any legal issues that might affect how consumers think and what products they want to buy.

I tend to deviate from this a little in favor of a more design-led approach, but it’s a good starting point for anyone who wants to understand their consumers and the world they’re navigating. 

These areas tend to influence how much money your customers will have. Are people feeling flush or strapped for cash? Is the global economy taking a nosedive, or is it buoyant? What decisions are politicians making that might directly affect your business or the lives of your consumers? 

Are customers feeling positive or negative about their lives? What are they interested in reading about, watching, or wearing?  What activities are they doing in their spare time?

Are there any technological developments that might influence the materials you use in your product or the way you sell it? Are there any new, cool finishes you can use or a new way of constructing your products? Is there new tech you can incorporate into your brand?

What must you focus on to make your offering more environmentally friendly? Is it packaging? Materials used? Or simply how it gets recycled at the end of its life? Is there a way you can improve on any aspect of your production process to help the environment and reassure your consumers you aren’t ruining the planet?

Are there any legal rulings that will affect your product or your business practices in the future?

You don’t have to look at PESTEL forensically—just focus on the points that affect your business the most. For example, because I tend to work with design-led brands, I always like to look at what notable companies are doing and developing in terms of design. What aesthetic influences can we see coming up in the market? What kind of materials are being developed and used? All of these trends can help with color forecasting.

If you want to put together solid color trend forecasts for your brand and your own customer base, here are some things to keep in mind.

When you’ve researched the areas covered by the PESTEL model, you’ll get an idea of how your consumers are feeling—and how they might still be feeling by the time your product hits the stores.

Timing is everything. You always have to remember you’re working on something that has to be relevant when your consumers can buy it, not just when you are designing it. This is why you need to distinguish between micro and macro trends.

I like to think of this as the difference between fads and trends. It’s important to distinguish between a short-lived obsession (a fad) and a trend that will still happen when your product hits the stores and beyond.

If everyone is obsessing over a particular movie, it is unlikely they will still be obsessing about it in a year. On the other hand, if that movie is part of a broader cultural trend (say, fantasy or a 70s aesthetic), you might want to take some visual cues from that trend if it relates to your product. This is why it’s important to split a color palette into two or three time zones: long, short, and mid-term.

All colors have a lifecycle, and it’s essential to know when to retire colors and when to hang onto them. Long-term color, or foundational color, is something I talked about in a previous post called How to build a successful color palette. But it bears repeating.

A good color palette balances all three types of these colors.

If you don’t like the idea of following trends, there’s nothing wrong with having your own point of view. A company that knows itself inside out and knows its consumers well often doesn’t need someone like me, because choosing color is a logical, integral step in their product development cycle.

Color is often a functional step in the design process for sports brands. For example, reflective elements are incorporated into products that are used at night. Bright colors are often applied to areas that need to be grabbed quickly, like zip pulls and fastenings.

The same principle applies to other industries. For example, will specific colors make your website or app more straightforward? Using this form-follows-function approach, brands can often develop color palettes without overthinking the process.

Like a small puppy that grows into an unmanageable hound, curating a color palette is similar to training a dog. If there’s no discipline behind your work, they grow into unwieldy creatures.

Don’t choose two colors when one will do. Interrogate every color you select and ask it: What will you do for me? What is your job? Each color should be working hard, provoking customers’ curiosity, and doing a slightly different task from the next one. Color is not something to be afraid of—it’s a tool to be enjoyed. Do your research, know your customer and the palette should follow closely behind, like a good doggie.

Ready to learn more about color? Read my recent post on seasonal color trends, or read up on color psychology. And find all the resources you need for your creative work on Envato—unlimited creative assets, all in one place.